DISCLAIMER: Im just another crayon-eating, window-licking, smooth-brained retard with an opinion on Reddit. I wouldnt take financial advice from me and youd be a fool if you considered this financial advice. This is merely an observation based on a massive amount of weed smoke and drunken trading.
--- NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ---
Above is the daily candlestick chart for AMC from Friday, May 14, 2021 to Friday, August 27, 2021
For those of you that are not familiar with a candlestick chart, a daily candlestick shows the markets open, high, low, and close price for the day. The candlestick has a wide part, which is called the real body.
This real body represents the price range between the open and close of that days trading. When the real body is filled in or black, it means the close was lower than the open. If the real body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.
Because me brain is as smooth as a babys ass, I like the candlesticks because they remind me of crayons and its easy to look at them and see bullish patterns once you know what the patterns are.
For the purposes of this TA, we will look at a three-candle pattern called the Bullish Harami, a single candle indicator that concludes a three-candle patter called the Morning Star and some other indicators it may take a wrinkle or two to make sense of but Ill make sure to include plenty of pictures and senseless emojis because most of us have the attention span of an ant (no offense to our Korean investors). 😂🤣😂🤣
The chart above depicts a bullish harami. The first two black candles indicate a two-day downward trend in the asset, and the white candle represents a slightly upward trend on the third day, which is completely contained by the body of the previous candle. Investors seeing this bullish harami may be encouraged by this diagram, as it can signal a reversal in the market.
As you can see from the above AMC chart, we entered a textbook bullish harami on Wednesday, August 25, 2021 and concluded it Friday, August 27, 2021 signaling a trend reversal. 👏👏👏
Now because we like our confirmation biases confirmed around these parts, I figured Id try to find confirmation within the six day spread were looking at before allowing me tits to start jacking. After a few beers (because if Im gonna trade drunk I might as well TA drunk), I focused in on that tiny little green crayon we ended with on Friday and me wrinkle started twitching and, by golly, dat sumsabish is a morning star! 🎉🎊🎉🎊
A morning star forms following a downward trend and it indicates the start of an upward climb. It is a sign of a reversal in the previous price trend. As highlighted in the SS, its important to remember that the middle candle can be red or green as we look to last we charts to confirm.
Notice the little star candle we left off Friday? Thats signaling a reversal in trend. If AMC follows the TA (and we all know thats a big if) then we definitely see green Monday.
So now that me confirmation bias is turning into an orgy of confirmations, how dafuq did I go from seeing some cool greenage Monday to seeing highs of over $170 Monday?
There are other technical indicators that can help predict if a morning star is forming, such as whether the price action is nearing a support zone or whether or not the relative strength indicator (RSI) is showing that the stock or commodity is oversold.
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100.
Generally, when the RSI surpasses the horizontal 30 reference level, it is a bullish sign, and when it slides below the horizontal 70 reference level, it is a bearish sign but, like all things stock related, its not always as simple as picking a number. Sometimes you may have to look for divergences.
A bullish divergence occurs when the RSI creates an oversold reading followed by a higher low that matches correspondingly lower lows in the price. This indicates rising bullish momentum, and a break above oversold territory could be used to trigger a new long position.
So to further bias my confirmations, we have to look at the bigger picture. Weve all heard the OG silverbacks say it repeatedly, When in doubt, zoom out., and thats exactly what we are going to do. 🦍💪🦍💪🦍💪
Im not the best at maffs but me thinks that makes for a four-way confirmation bias. So how big of a confirmation bias can we turn this into? I aint real sure yet but we about to find out together. 🍺🤠👍
Another indicator we can use to further confirm our bias is the moving average convergence divergence or MACD.
The MACD measures the relationship between two EMAs, while the RSI measures price change in relation to recent price highs and lows. These two indicators are often used together to provide analysts with a more complete technical picture of a market.
For example, the RSI may show a reading above 70 for a sustained period of time, indicating a market is overextended to the buy side in relation to recent prices, while the MACD indicates the market is still increasing in buying momentum. Either indicator may signal an upcoming trend change by showing divergence from price (price continues higher while the indicator turns lower, or vice versa).
If we look back to just before the June 02, 2021 run-up, we see the exact same uptick in the MACD. To be precise, we see a seven day uptick, followed by four days of rapidly rising MACD and then BOOM ... we jump to highs of $72
Would ya look at that apes? Not only does the candlestick chart look eerily close to what we saw on the June run-up but the MACD and RSI are showing virtually the same properties that they were when we ran up in June. 🚀🚀🚀🚀
First lets look at the run up to $72on June 2nd. Notice the MACD is steadily climbing but the RSI is well over 80 before we jump to $72? That tells me that even though the RSI indicates an overbought condition, there is still plenty of room to grow given the right circumstances
Well if we look at the current run-up that ended Friday, we have matching candle patterns, MACD starting to pop (7 day span concluded, moving into 4 day span of growth) but the RSI is no where near the 80 it was at prior indicating that there is still plenty of room to grow.
By now, all of you should be familiar with the parabolic arc theory that has been floating around the last couple of weeks. Im not going to pretend to understand the math behind it nor pretend to be able to validate the claims made in it. Im simply going to have faith that the wrinkle-brained mofos that figured it out know what theyre talking about.
If we look at the statistics from the previous run-up, we see an open of $12.38, a low of $12.17, a high of $72.60 and a close of $62.55 during the seven day trading period concluding on June 02, 2021 with a corresponding rate of increase right around 405%
When compared to the current run up, we see an open of $33.90, a low of $32.20, a high of $48.30 and a close of $40.84 during the six day trading period leading up to Monday. We are currently up around 20.5% leaving room for a perspective increase of an additional 384.5% from our Friday closing price of $40.84 meaning we have a good chance of closing as high as $197.68
If we see the same increase we saw over a seven day period then we may see an increase of 405% from the opening price of $33.90 or a closing price of about $171.19 Monday.
Like always, AMC does whatever dafuq it wants so take it with a grain of salt but we could be looking at triple digits as soon as Monday.
TL/DR -- Buy what you can, when you can and HODL until the end.
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