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Contributor Group Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
FireEye Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FEYE) has seen an impressive rise of 5% over the past week and currently trades at around $18 per share. The stock rally was driven by the jump in the broader indices, despite mixed results for Q2 2021, announced earlier this month. FEYE reported revenues of $114 million, up from $97 million for the same period last year. However, higher COGS and operating expenses saw the operating loss widen to $84 million in Q2 â€™21 from $77 million in Q2 â€™20. This saw EPS from continuing operations drop marginally to -$0.44 from -$0.41.
After the recent rally, will FEYE stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a companyâ€™s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for FEYE stock average close to 1.4% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 5.4% rise over the previous one week (five trading days) period. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding FEYE stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test FireEye stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE â€“ try it yourself:
IF FEYE stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, FEYE stock moves an average of 1.1 percent, with an average 53.1% probability of a positive return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of FireEye Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for FEYE stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: FEYE stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: FEYE stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for FEYE stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
FEYE stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 1.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.4% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how FEYE stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold FEYE stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you - at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engineâ€™s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For FEYE stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
FEYEâ€™s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Itâ€™s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for FireEye stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if youâ€™re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Hereâ€™s a high-quality portfolio thatâ€™s beaten the market since 2016.
Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a companys products, that you
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