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UKRAINE - 2021/05/18: In this photo illustration the FireEye logo of a cybersecurity company is seen ... [+] on a smartphone and a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

FireEye Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FEYE) has seen an impressive rise of 5% over the past week and currently trades at around $18 per share. The stock rally was driven by the jump in the broader indices, despite mixed results for Q2 2021, announced earlier this month. FEYE reported revenues of $114 million, up from $97 million for the same period last year. However, higher COGS and operating expenses saw the operating loss widen to $84 million in Q2 ’21 from $77 million in Q2 ’20. This saw EPS from continuing operations drop marginally to -$0.44 from -$0.41.

After the recent rally, will FEYE stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for FEYE stock average close to 1.4% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 5.4% rise over the previous one week (five trading days) period. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding FEYE stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test FireEye stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF FEYE stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, FEYE stock moves an average of 1.1 percent, with an average 53.1% probability of a positive return.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of FireEye Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for FEYE stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: FEYE stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: FEYE stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for FEYE stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

FEYE stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 1.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.4% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how FEYE stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold FEYE stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you - at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For FEYE stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Average Return

Trefis

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

FEYE’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Average Return

Trefis

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for FireEye stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.

See all Trefis Featured Analyses and Download Trefis Data here

Trefis

Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a companys products, that you

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